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Dec 26, 2017
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#1
I was asked to post my analysis here so this will be my first and if people want further ones then I shall. My trading is based off of volume analysis mainly and patterns thrown in. I do not day trade cryptos I mainly hold, however people want to know what is happening in the short term.

Here we have a wedge forming which could potentially offer up a continuation to the downside, this will be the third of these patterns so far. However price needs to first break either of the first two (above or below) blue lines. Once price reaches these lines I will be looking to see what the volume is looking like and the candles. Really we will need a break of the lowest low on that chart it will go down to at leasy the lowest blue line. These patterns often work in such a way that once the dam breaks it just flows. Should that happen we would be going down to 0.06 areas.

You also need to look at the psychology of people in the market. Yesterday people saw their large gains diminish and some saw those gains go into a loss. We recovered and that made them happy again but the longer it takes to go up and stays where it is the most anxious they will get at the thought of lpain it all again. With the fud being spread they may panic.

This is a hodl market so my opinion is to sit back and chill. Let's wait till these areas are breached and see if the bulls can take control. Right now we are in limbo.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#2
Pattern has just broken the volume isn't anything special yet. Let's wait till the close of this hour candle.
 
Dec 26, 2017
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#4
On the 4hr chart the volume is dying as it moves lower. The candles are small, a 4hr chart obviously takes more time to mature so will need to come back after the next candle closes and continue to watch on the hour chart.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#5
Short term supports are 0.1418 and 0.1372. Let's hope price can get stuck on either of those.
 
Dec 26, 2017
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#6
So now we are still in a range even though things are looking better.

We managed to peak above a previous high but then failed. Right now the real tells are going to be a break above the all time high or the break below the last significant low.

However often with funnel/wedge patterns price many times finds a resistance/support at the center of old patterns when approaching from the opposite direction.

The blue lines that are close together represent a resistance area that if broken with some force would signal to me with little doubt that we are on the up at that point and will break the previous high easily.

What you have to remember I am a long term bull and am not interested in trading these movements but this is just my analysis for people that do care.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#7
This is exactly why putting lines on a chart is not analysis and why as I sad yesterday we are in limbo. Price failed to breach the previous high without any force, the volume was there but the candles were small (on the 5 minute chart this is often a warning sign and it was as price dropped. Price has also failed to get anywhere near my break out area marked by the two upper blue lines. At this point price needs to prove itself by reaching and breaching very specific levels. Without this happening up or down is not a guarantee, but what we are seeing is the tug of war between buyers are and sellers.

Because the crypto market is so young I can't say how advanced thsee markets are in terms of the manipulation that goes on. Manipulation isn't a bad thing if you can read it but these market's I am unsure of and that is why I only hold my investments rather than trade.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#8
Short term a break of the blue lined low with some force (volume) and strong candles closing on their low will take us back down to previous lows.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#9
So the level broke like it looked like it would (short term on a 5 minute chart). As I said these wedge patterns are often continuation patterns so they break with the trend and in this case the break should of been to the downside and was.

Here is a 1 hour chart which shows the larger, more significant support. If this breaks in a manner that the 5 minute support broke the we are really going down. Until this happens or the market moves much higher we are still in limbo.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#10
This is interesting and shows why multiple time frames are needed to get the full picture always.

The 5 minute chart looks weak and looks to again be setting up another of these wedge patterns we have seen over the last few days. These typically play out as continuation and thus would mean more downside is likely. The volume up or down is rather dull either way (as are the candles) so no tells here other than the pattern.
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However if we take a look at the 1 hour, we see a slightly different picture. We have a very strong spike to the left which will require some force to get past and then below that we have another low (put of shot but marked by a blue line) that will need also a lot of might to get past.

It is telling that even though we got past short terms lows we have not been able to push much lower and the candles have become much less positive in terms of direction. We are still in a range and nothing is certain but when this happens the market is often gearing up for a move of some sort.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#11
So the price went down in a continuation as these patterns often do (remember nothing is a definite without volume confirming it).

We did look at the hour chart and saw price looking a little weak (this is why multipletime frame analysis is so important), even though in the short term there was a profitable trade, in the long term things weren't looking so great. If you look at the volume to the downside it really did die, now we need the buyers to take the bull by the horns (sorry I couldn't resist).
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If we look at a 4 hour chart we see each candle to the downside is being pushed up to close with a wick. All this coupled with the strong support we have to the left tells me it is going to be very difficult for sellers to get past that. If price does then we need to look to volume for a confirmation. What we may end up with is a false break to sick sellers in and then a reversal. Should that happen the move up should start with some urgency due to many sellers stops getting hit.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#12
Although price is showing another wedge pattern and as I have said they often continue with trend (which short term is down) we do have some conflicting signs.

Firstly the pullback we got was much larger than anything we have seen on the way down, this signals bulls have at least started to regain strength. Also we are at a low that will require a lot of strength to go down and the volume leading up to it was dying.
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However at present if you look at the zoomed in 5 minute chart, you will see each of the latest highs to the left have been broken but even with some better looking volume price has only been able to create tiny candles.

We need to see more at this point but at least the bulls are trying.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#13
This is why volume analysis is so powerful. The weakness could be seen as shown earlier when talking about the zoomed in 5 minute chart. It tried to go up one more time after my last post and that totally failed and since that we have just gone down. We have a short term supper area marked by the blue line and price looks to be having not a great time. Let see if it can be broke (watch for large volume, more volume than is there now)

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Now let's look at the 1hour chart, this move down is struggling and volume is really dying.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#14
As I thought, the market looked to be struggling to go lower, they even produced a false break just to suck in the sellers and thats why we have had a rather quick move up as peoples stops are getting hit.

This move up is making me think there is more upside possible because as you can see the volume is building. We need to breach some levels first to really go higher though.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#15
I thought it was going up and it did, the signs were all there. If you had wanted to take an aggressive approach then buying right away and putting a stop below the blue line would of been fine. But the better trade and the one where you would of been sure without a shadow of a doubt it was going up would of been buying the close of the candle with the red line on it.

The reason this would of been such a sure trade would of been due to the things I mentioned previously and the pullback highlighted. Look at the volume on that pullback. Essentially this was just a last shake out of the few sellers left before take off. Volume literally died!

Now you will see after letting the buyers go for a bit, sellers have come back with some force to try to take back contol. The fact it's act a resistance level males it a better chance. We shall watch and see how it goes.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#16
OK, so in a previous post I explained how funnels can often work as support or resistance areas and that is exactly what we have seen yesterday.

We see that there funnel marked to the left and when price came back up to that level it failed and reversed. There were other signs such as the large volume on the way up to that level, the pullback and then the very light volume on the continued move up (marked with the two red lines).

If price approaches an area that previously had large volume, and the new move had low volume, it is going to be practically impossible for price to break that level. This works for ANY previous highs or low, trading ranges, channels and patterns of every sort.

Now we are on the way back to the previous low marked in blue, that is unless we have some news which changes things up.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#17
This is anothe example of how to determine the war for dominance between the buyers and sellers.

In the short term the next level we need to break to keep going up is the blue line.

The run up marked with the first red line shows decent volume but price didn't breach anything significant. We pulled back then again had another go. This time we breached the very last high but didn't get near the blue one. If you look at the volume market by the second red line you will see the bulls simply didn't have it in them. In my opinion we are still going down to the level I mentioned two posts ago.

I hope these posts are starting to open people's minds to the power of volume analysis.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#18
So the last short term movement ended up being a failure. The essence of what I was showing is certainly correct and if you trade those types of events you will win a staggeringly high amount compared to the ones you lose. In the short term it didn't provide a small move that would of provided profit but my longterm target isn't going to be hit anytime soon.

I should have maybe rather than plot out the previous low as my ultimate stopping area, I should of instead mapped out a range where price could stop.

Overall we are still in a range, a break of $0.21 area with some force will male me get a bit more excited. The break of the all yime high is going to be the real test. However if we stay up there for too long it wont take much for peope to remember what it felt like to see their gains drain away, and they will bail thus sending price down.

All this analysis is just to show the twists and turns of the market and hopefully teach people a thing or two.
 
Dec 26, 2017
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#19
So earlier we had a example that didn't work and not long ago we have had one that did, these are high probability trades.

Move that approach highs or lows that previous saw high volume and the new move is showing low volume are going to have big issues if they want to breach these levels.

Look at this chart of the 5 minute chart. Price moves up, price retraces and then price tries again on low volume. It nearly always ends in a failure.

What is also interesting is that if we look at the 1 hour chart we see the exact same scenario has happened. Price has tried to break a previous high and failed as the volume simply wasn't there.

However on the hour chart we need to see some more confirmations to show we are definitely heading lower for a sustained time period. The 5 minute chart confirmed and provided a tradeable move, if I wouldn't trade the 1 hour chart solely based on what's happened so far.
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Dec 26, 2017
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#20
This is a zoomed out 1 hour chart, you will see that we have been finding support every time a little higher than the previous low. This is a good thing and as long as we hold above the blue line then everything is fine. This is not to say if we go lower than the blue line that everything will go to pot but I wold prefer it to be stable above it.

The reason the blue lined low is the one I feel carries the most weight if because of the volume associated with it. Price will need some real force to break it and not only will force be needed to break it but it will also need to be visible on the way leading up to it. This in my opinion, without some really bad news and FUD will thankfully be difficult. But remember nothing is definite, we wait and watch the charts candle by candle, volume bar by volume bar to inform us what is going on.

We are getting closer every day to the release of Wraith. What that may do to the price I do not know but it is an benchmark event of some note.
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